Scientific significance of the study. Theoretical and practical significance of the research. What will help in formulating relevance?

In modern conditions of the development of scientific thought, any scientific research must be socially significant, contain new scientific information, generalize the best experience, solve new theoretical problems, and reveal methods for using theory in specific conditions of activity. That is, any scientific research must be relevant in modern conditions of scientific development and contain elements of scientific novelty.

Relevance of scientific research

The relevance of scientific research is determined by the fact that its results will contribute to solving specific practical problems or will help eliminate existing theoretical contradictions in the field of accounting as a whole or in its individual areas. The relevance of scientific research is justified, first of all, by the novelty of the results obtained in the process of its implementation, on the basis of which new theoretical principles can be established and ways of their application for the specific practical needs of accounting practice can be determined.

Domestic and foreign scientists interpret the concept of the relevance of scientific research differently (Table 10.4).

Table 10.4

Definitions of "relevance of scientific research"

In scientific research in the field of accounting, certain types of relevance are distinguished (Fig. 10.2):

Rice. 10.2. Types of relevance of scientific research in the field of accounting

For example, a scientist who conducts research in the field of accounting on the topic “Accounting and cost control in the management system of forestry enterprises” can justify the relevance of his research as follows:

1. The study of cost accounting methods at forestry enterprises is relevant in connection with significant changes in current legislation, namely in connection with the adoption of the Tax Code of Ukraine.

2. Taking into account the changes made to the current national accounting provisions (standards), it is relevant to study the classification characteristics of expenses of forestry enterprises in order to improve their analytical accounting.

3. In connection with the ongoing process of reforming the tax legislation of Ukraine, the issue of developing new forms of primary tax documents, namely a tax invoice, remains relevant.

4. Taking into account the changes made to the Chart of Accounts for accounting assets, capital, liabilities and business operations of enterprises and organizations of Ukraine for organizing analytical cost accounting, a pressing issue is the introduction of additional sub-accounts for accounting costs at forestry enterprises.

A more detailed example of the scientifically based formation of the relevance of scientific research on the topic “Accounting and cost control in the management system of forestry enterprises” is given below:

Scientific novelty

Scientific research carried out on a current topic with the aim of solving certain problems must contain the scientific novelty of the results obtained. In Ukraine, when carrying out scientific research, it is customary to formulate the scientific novelty of the results obtained using the following phrases:

First

Improved...;

Received further development...

The issue of novelty is one of the most controversial and difficult when carrying out various types of scientific research, including in the field of accounting. Some scientists may consider the result obtained by the scientist to be new, while others may consider it to be long-known. At the same time, when drawing conclusions, they rely on their personal experience, which, due to the growing number of works, the expansion of research topics and the simultaneous partial reduction of available sources of information, is becoming less and less reliable. Therefore, every scientist must be able to clearly and reasonably determine the novelty of his own scientific result, as well as defend his choice in the future.

When formulating scientific novelty, it is important to consider three main conditions:

1. Disclosure of the result, that is, in a scientific work it is necessary to indicate what type of new knowledge the researcher received. This could be the development of a concept, methodology, classification, patterns, and the like. So, one should distinguish between theoretical and practical novelty.

2. Determining the degree of novelty of the result obtained, its place among known scientific facts. In comparison, new information can perform various functions: clarify, specify existing information, expand and supplement it, or significantly transform it. Depending on this, the following levels of novelty are distinguished: specification, additions, transformations.

3. The assessment of new results is their detailed and clear presentation, and not formal, unsupported assurances that the theoretical positions and practical conclusions of the study are new.

So, we can distinguish three levels of novelty of scientific research:

a) transformation of known data, their radical change;

b) expansion, addition of known data;

c) clarification, specification of known data, extension of known results to a new class of objects and systems.

It is also possible to mathematically describe the forms of novelty of scientific research (Table 10.5)

Table 10.5

Forms of scientific novelty

	Characteristics of scientific novelty	Designations of scientific novelty
	Partial new combination of features	(It was A + B, it became C + D)
	Enabling a new feature	(It was A + B, it became A + B + C)
	Replacing some features with new ones	(It was A + B + C, it became A + B + D)
	Using a more specific characteristic as a generally accepted	(It was A + B + C, it became A + B + C1, where C1 = C + C + C1.)
	New relative arrangement of features	(It was A + B + C, it became A + C + B)
	A new type of connection and interaction between features:
	Sharing features that were previously used separately as a new combination	(Was X = A + B; Y = C + D, became Z = A + B + C + D)
	New form (mode, structure) features	(It was a + B + C, it became A + B + C).
	New quantitative ratio of traits	(It was A + B + C, it became A + 2B + 3C)

All scientific provisions in the field of accounting, taking into account the achieved level of novelty, are the theoretical basis (foundation) solved in the study of a scientific problem or scientific problem. First of all, scientific work can be given positive reviews for this.

The scientific novelty and theoretical significance of scientific research in the field of accounting lies in revealing the content of the concept, method or technique, identifying and formulating the patterns of the accounting process or describing accounting models. The practical significance of scientific novelty, including the justification of a new accounting or methodological system, recommendations, requirements, proposals.

To determine these parameters for assessing the results of scientific research in the field of accounting, a number of requirements are put forward that scientific work at all levels must meet. However, an analysis of scientific works in the field of accounting by young scientists shows that many authors do not have a common understanding of how to formulate novelty, theoretical and practical significance in content and form, how to “separate” them without repeating the same thing, without duplicating description of the relevance of the study.

In scientific novelty, research presents a short list of new scientific provisions (solutions) proposed by the scientist personally. It is necessary to show the difference between the results obtained and previously known ones, to describe the degree of novelty (obtained for the first time, improved, received further development).

Typical mistakes made in this case are:

Novelty is replaced by the relevance of the topic, its practical and theoretical significance;

The works state that this issue has not been considered in specific conditions, its importance for practice has not been explored;

The conclusions to the sections are of a statement nature and are self-evident statements that really cannot be argued with;

There is no connection between previously obtained and new results, that is, continuity.

Each scientific position in the field of accounting is clearly formulated, separating its basic essence and focusing special attention on the level of novelty achieved. The scientific position in the field of accounting that has been formulated should be read and understood easily and unambiguously (without the accumulation of small details and clarifications that obscure its essence). In no case should you resort to presenting a scientific position in the form of an abstract, when it is simply stated that this and that have been done in a scientific work, but the essence and novelty of the position cannot be discovered from what is written. Presenting scientific statements in the form of an abstract is the most common mistake made by a scientist when presenting the general characteristics of a work, which occurs in 90% of scientific papers. There are often scientific works whose conclusions repeat well-known provisions or obvious truths.

When forming scientific novelty during scientific research in the field of accounting, you should express your own opinion (if you have compelling arguments), but you should not abuse the pronoun “I” so much that it catches your eye. As a rule, for formal reports it is appropriate to avoid the personal pronouns I, we, you, you, because they give the communication and text a touch of personal address, of an informal nature. Most often in scientific communication, the use of impersonal forms (researched, reviewed, analyzed) predominates for colloquial vocabulary, informal communication, direct appeal to the listener or reader; the author can choose “I”. Impersonal sentences, passive phrases, and reflexive verbs also contribute to objectivity of opinion.

Personal constructs can easily be turned into impersonal ones. For example: I am convinced - it is quite clear that; we believe - it is believed that...

Excessive emphasis on “I” or “we” in scientific research in the field of accounting constantly suggests that the author is more interested in himself than in the object of study; the essence may be lost in the personal background. The constant “we” makes us wonder why the researcher constantly “extols” himself by referring to the plural form. The pronoun we most often means the team (author and co-author, group of authors) who worked on the concept, analysis, exploration results, their implementation in practice, and the like.

Examples of scientific novelty

Below are the options for the established scientific novelty of the research on the topic “Accounting and cost control in the management system of forestry enterprises”:

First:

A methodology for budgeting the production costs of forestry enterprises' products has been proposed, which includes a budget model for production costs by type of wood, which allows for cost planning, operational control of the rational use of production resources and implementation of the production program;

Improved:

The method of distribution of general production costs of forestry enterprises due to the use of variable costs, in particular, labor costs as a distribution base, provides more reasonable information about the amount of production costs and the level of cost and, accordingly, the establishment of a real selling price for crop products;

Received further development:

Interpretation of the concept of “information support for cost management” is a set of information flows containing information about the costs of production, taking into account the needs of users at all levels of management and providing information communication between sources and users of such information;

Justification of the basic requirements for the concept of “information support for cost management” - minimum volume with maximum content, efficiency, usefulness, reliability, timeliness, grouping by responsibility centers, analyticality, understandability, reliability, purposefulness, comparability, suitability.

Scientific research activities of schoolchildren - a way of understanding reality

Introduction

Research problem

Research objectives

Research hypothesis

Main content of the work

Conclusion

List of used literature

Applications

Main characteristics of the research methodological apparatus.

Research problem.

§ To determine it, it is necessary to answer the question: “What needs to be studied, what has not yet been studied enough or not studied at all?” A problem in science is a contradictory situation that requires its resolution, which most often arises as a result of the discovery of new facts that do not fit within the framework of previous theoretical concepts.

§ When choosing a problem, you need to take into account the presence or absence of the necessary research base.

§ Usually, in the process of student research, a problem known to science is studied, but the student and his supervisor discover it as new.

Selection and formulation of the research topic

§ A young scientist should take on a fairly narrow and specific topic. This will provide a lot of advantages: sources will be within your reach, scientific literature will not be counted in dozens of thick volumes.

§ A clearly defined topic disciplines the mind and creates a desire to work.

§ It may look like this: while reading the literature on a problem of interest, you discover that some aspect of the topic is covered by the authors less clearly than others or in passing. Having understood what place this problem occupies in the field of knowledge that interests you and having understood what data is needed to illuminate it, you will approach the formulation of your own topic.

§ It is advisable in formulating the topic to go from indicating the process under study (diagnosis..., research..., analysis..., preparation..., formation..., development..) and the conditions in which it is studied (on excursions..., in lessons..., in the process studying...).

Determining the relevance and novelty of the research

§ Relevance - the degree of importance of the topic at the moment, in a specific situation for solving the problem. The relevance of the study lies in explaining the theoretical novelty and positive effect that will be achieved as a result of the work.

§ Novelty lies in the use of new approaches or research methods, obtaining new knowledge resulting from generalization and critical analysis of literary sources.

Purpose of the study

§ This is a question that the study must answer, what to achieve, the presence of what natural connection to show, while the topic is a problem that the answer to the question allows to solve.

§ Formulating a goal involves the question “What and why should this be done?”

§ The statement of the goal should be so clear that the boundaries of the study are clear from it.

§ A good goal statement is one that, when read without additional explanation, makes it clear how to achieve this goal.

Object and subject of research

§ The object of research is what the attention of the research is directed to, what is subject to consideration.

§ The subject of research is a separate side or perspective of the object being studied, which gives an idea of how the researcher views the object, what new qualities, properties, functions are inherent in it. The object is inside the object.

Research hypothesis

§ Hypothesis – scientifically substantiated (supported by scientific data and logical considerations) assumptions about the structure and essential properties of the objects being studied, the nature of the connections between individual elements of the phenomena and processes being studied, the truth of which must be proven. When putting forward a hypothesis, the author must be sure that in the course of the work he will be able to verify its truth or falsity.

§ A hypothesis always reveals the inconsistency of the subject being studied; it must be proven.

§ Scientific hypothesis is a form of scientific exploration of reality.

§ A working hypothesis is a tool with which new knowledge is obtained in each specific study.

Research objectives

§ Problems are a series of specific questions that need to be solved in order to answer the main one.

§ This is usually done in the form of an enumeration (identify..., determine..., study..., derive a formula..., test...).

§ By formulating the tasks, the researcher answers the question: “What needs to be done to confirm the hypothesis, assumption?”

§ The proposed problems are solved using scientific research methods - methods of constructing and justifying a system of philosophical knowledge, a set of techniques and operations for the practical and theoretical development of reality (observation, experiment, analysis, synthesis, deduction, induction, comparison).

Theoretical and practical significance of the research

§ The theoretical significance of the research is determined by whether the work contains new developments of theoretical principles and scientific novelty.

§ The practical significance of the work should show: to whom and how the results obtained will be useful, what new techniques can be developed on their basis.

Related information.

Successful defense of a master's thesis is the basis for awarding an academic master's degree, indicating the level of education of a graduate of an educational institution. A master's thesis differs from a bachelor's final qualifying work in the most thorough theoretical and practical analysis of the issues under study, as well as the scientific novelty of the research.

The significance of novelty can hardly be overestimated - in his project, the master’s student not only analyzes the existing practice and development of the issue under study, but also brings for discussion the existing theoretical and practical problems of the current state of the topic under study

However, in order for a master’s student’s project to receive a positive assessment, it is necessary to distinguish the elements of scientific novelty of the research.

What is the scientific novelty of research

The definition of the novelty of research results was formulated by scientists on the basis of certain characteristics that should be characteristic of a final qualifying work written in the form of a master's thesis.

The master's project must be innovative in the topic under study; the author analyzes and summarizes existing phenomena and trends in the issue under consideration, puts forward well-founded hypotheses and provisions, substantiates the need to use new or modify existing methods of management, forecasting, planning, and brings up new definitions for discussion.

Scientists have also identified levels of novelty, which consist of three definitions - specification, addition, transformation.

When choosing a topic, it is necessary to remember that in order to write a work, the purpose of which is to formulate innovative provisions, it is necessary to study theoretical and practical issues that are of research interest, are not sufficiently covered in science or have problems of application in practice. We also must not forget about the relevance of the chosen topic.

Thus, in a global sense, the goal of almost any research and development work is to find new ways to solve socio-economic problems, which consist in the application of new or existing optimized techniques and methodologies for achieving set goals in production and non-production areas of activity that are important for the successful development of society .

These are the necessary elements of scientific novelty of a master's thesis that a master's thesis project should have.

Scientific novelty of the master's thesis. Peculiarities. Examples

The author will be able to prove the scientific novelty of the results of his research if, at the defense of the research project, he convincingly and consistently reveals the scientific value of his project in theory, as well as the real need to apply the research findings in practice.

Important! It should be noted that the most significant argument in favor of the research value presented to defend the master's hypotheses is a patent or copyright certificate for short stories in the subject under consideration, which the author received on the basis of his personal research.

Such evidence of novelty is considered a priori indisputable and has a certain significance in the context of the need to successfully defend a dissertation.

But even in the absence of such serious support in the work, it is possible to limit ourselves to a clear and serious argumentation of the novelty of the results and their practical significance.

As a rule, in master's theses the number of signs of scientific novelty should be at least two. These include:

a previously unstudied research object; what is new?
application of previously used methods to a new research object;
application of a new method to a previously studied object of study;
formulation of already studied problems or tasks in new conditions;
new consequences from previously studied facts in new conditions;
new or improved methodologies, solution methods, techniques, tools.

An example of justification for scientific novelty is given in the following table.

Table 1.

Research methods in master's thesis

The choice of research methods should be written separately. Often, the wrong choice of research methods leads to a low assessment of the quality of the results obtained. It must be remembered that research methods can be general scientific, characteristic of any branch of science (analysis, synthesis, deduction, etc.) or special, used in specific areas (for example, in economics - modeling).

An example of a qualitative study of a chosen topic is the use of several methods in combination. Various forms of obtaining data are also welcome

For example, in psychology or economics a combination of testing and modeling is practiced. The results of such forms applied within one study need to be studied and explored in conjunction. The data obtained should not contradict each other. In the course of research, the author receives intermediate results, which should complement and connect each other in a logical sequence, confirm the author’s hypothesis and lead to the final overall result of the master’s student’s work.

A kind of “insurance” against a low assessment of the quality of work is a visual presentation of the results obtained in the form of slide shows, edited videos, built on interactive boards of graphs and diagrams.

Advice!Such demonstrations should be colorful, as well as the clarity of the conclusions of the final qualifying work.

Advice!For ease of perception, you should not write a large amount of text on a slide or mounted video frames.

Remember that the presentation is only a supplement to the scientifically based formulations and definitions disclosed in the work.

Scientific significance and scientific novelty of the problem under study

The scientific significance of the work means that the master’s student’s opinion on the topic under study concerns issues that have not previously been considered or have been insufficiently studied. To analyze the degree of knowledge, the author must turn to the works of scientists and specialists. In practice, if a candidate for a master's degree limited himself to studying only a single point of view on an issue (for example, the one held by the majority of scientists), but did not write about alternative opinions, this is grounds for deeming the quality of the research low.

The chosen topic, if possible, should be covered from different points of view of recognized authorities in the field of science, but the author must present new arguments, which consist of the obtained research data, as well as in the conditions of modern realities (for example, in economics - the introduction of economic sanctions against Russia)

To justify the significance of the project, a master’s student can cite definitions that were formulated for the first time and scientifically proven; methods and methodologies, the application of which can achieve new, improved results.

Many experts distinguish the identification of new trends, patterns of development of various branches of science as signs of the novelty of a scientific result.

Also, if a researcher in his work wrote and, accordingly, proved that the study of the chosen topic is based on theoretical formulations and definitions that deepen the understanding of the essence of phenomena and processes, mechanisms of interaction, then he may well lay claim to scientific and practical novelty.

When defending the work, it is necessary to remember that the formulation of elements of novelty is optimally carried out using the example of the following scheme:

Relevance of the master's thesis and practical significance

The relevance and practical significance of the work are related to the definition of the research topic, which is not just the title of the work, but a precisely result-oriented choice of the segment of the scientific field that should be written about in the project. The author must obtain, examine and connect the data obtained, and also have a vision of the situation as a whole - an awareness of the final result of the work.

The formulation of the relevance of the project is the result of a master’s student’s research, aimed at solving a problem in the field of social activity or relations in society in modern conditions.

Important! It should be noted that it is necessary to write not only about the positive data obtained as a result of the research, but also to include in the work negative experience, which is no less valuable practical material. The scientific novelty and practical significance of the project directly depends on the availability of the totality of new data obtained.

What is the difference between scientific novelty and provisions submitted for defense?

The scientific novelty of the dissertation is, rather, a characterizing component of the research conducted, which determines the innovative nature of the data obtained during the writing of the work.

The provisions submitted for defense are, in fact, those new, reliably established facts or knowledge obtained in the course of research conducted as part of the dissertation, previously unknown to science.

The master's thesis is the student's first step into the world of discoveries in the field of science, the next most important work is the candidate's thesis.

The results of the dissertation research can be used for further scientific developments on this and related topics.

The results of the dissertation research can contribute to the development of legislation on joint stock companies, as well as the resolution of problems arising in its application.

The provisions developed in the dissertation can be applied in the process of teaching the course “Civil Law”, the special course “Challenging decisions of the general meeting of shareholders”, in higher legal education institutions.

Approbation of research results.

The dissertation was discussed and approved at a meeting of the Department of Civil Law Disciplines of the Faculty of Law. MM. Speransky State Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education "Academy of National Economy under the Government of the Russian Federation". The results of the study were used in the educational process at the Faculty of Law. MM. Speransky State Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education "Academy of National Economy under the Government of the Russian Federation" when conducting classes with students in the special course "Challenging decisions of the general meeting of shareholders." The main content of the dissertation is reflected in three publications by the author.

Structure of the dissertation.

The structure of the work is determined by the subject and goals of the study. The dissertation consists of an introduction, two chapters of ten paragraphs, and a bibliography.

Object and subject of research

The object of the historiographical part of the study is the work of domestic scientists devoted to the problem of alternative historical development. The subject of research here is the historiographical, theoretical, methodological and discursive characteristics of the development of the idea of alternativeness in Russian historical science

The object of the methodological part of the study is the alternative nature of historical development as a phenomenon of historical consciousness and as a phenomenon of the historical past. Subject of study in this case - metaphysical, logical, socio-psychological foundations and empirical methods for studying the alternative nature of historical development.

Goals and objectives of the study

The study has two main objectives.

The first goal: to trace the development of the study of the problem of alternativeness in domestic historical science and to characterize the experience accumulated in these studies. Within the framework of this goal, the following tasks are set: 1. Identify the stages of development and theoretical directions in the study of the problem of alternativeness. 2. Summarize and evaluate the contribution of each stage to the study of the problem. 3. Conduct a critical analysis of theoretical directions using methods of discourse analysis and system analysis. 4. Highlight insufficiently studied aspects of the alternative nature of historical development.

The second goal: to conduct a methodological analysis of insufficiently studied aspects in the study of alternative historical development and try to fill the gaps in this area. Within the framework of the second goal, the following tasks are set: 1. To establish the philosophical and metaphysical foundations of the phenomenon of alternative historical development. 2. Systematize the categorical, terminological and methodological apparatus used in the study of alternativeness. 3. Develop new methods for studying alternative historical situations.

Methodological grounds

Based on previous experience in studying the problem of alternative historical development, an attempt will be made to develop a new approach to understanding this problem. On this path, preference is given not to declaring final answers to questions, but to establishing criteria for the correct formulation of questions and answers. The complexity and multidimensionality of the problem required a comprehensive interdisciplinary consideration, but comprehensiveness should not destroy integrity and give rise to eclecticism. Therefore, the dominant methodological principle will be the search for a synthesis of various concepts used in comprehending the alternative nature of historical development.

The appeal in the work to the ideas of metaphysics in the works of classical philosophers is justified by the fact that the category of free will has a fundamental role for the concept of alternative historical development. The problem of free will belongs to those fundamental problems that outside of metaphysics cannot not only be solved, but also posed. Since history, unlike philosophy, studies not meanings in general, but meanings “documented in time,” special attention will be paid to the connection of metaphysical foundations with empirical methods.

Research methods

The problem of alternative historical development was studied from the point of view of its socio-psychological origins, the continuity of original schools, the formation and transformation of new approaches, therefore the main principle of the study will be historicism.

Since the development of a certain topic and idea is being studied, it is considered necessary to use the method of analyzing discursive practices (M. Foucault).

When studying an alternative situation, the historian deals primarily with information about the system of events. Therefore, systems analysis methods will be used ( F. I. Peregudov, F. P. Tarasenko, V. N Kostyuk).

One of the directions in the study of historical alternatives is the use of quantitative methods, therefore, when analyzing these directions, some principles of methods of higher mathematics will be used. The works of A. N. Kolmogorov, S. A. Aivazyan, N. N. Moiseev are used as support for competent specialists.

Scientific significance of the topic

A non-alternative understanding of development at the conceptual level provides the researcher with a convenient basis for selecting facts that confirm his theory and ignoring facts that diverge from it. Sometimes this can lead to the disappearance of motives for searching for new facts and new explanations for known facts. There are historical phenomena that, with no alternative vision of history, do not even fall into the field of view of the historian.

Thus, according to P. Yu. Uvarov, in the French history of the 15th century, along with the victorious model of a centralized monarchy and nation-state, there was a “Burgundian alternative”, actually represented by the state of the Dukes of Burgundy. “This trend was not realized - the accidental death of Charles the Bold put an end to this “experiment”, and Burgundy fell apart. This result seemed so convincing to the supporters of the “linear model” of historical evolution that the history of the lands of the Duke of Burgundy acquired among them the status of a typical “misunderstanding”, an instructive zigzag of history, corrected by the laws of historical necessity. From the French "General Histories" history of the Netherlands in the 15th century. completely disappeared. This could be explained by the peculiarities of French historiography as an element of national identity,” but our historians do not have a word about the political history of the Burgundian state. “Such a state did not exist, because it was “wrong” and had no future.” Thus, insufficient knowledge of the problem of alternative historical development may hamper the full development of historical science.

Common phrases that history does not have (does not know, does not tolerate, does not allow, does not love, does not have) the subjunctive mood, or that historical science excludes (it is not applicable, not permissible in it) the subjunctive mood, have literally filled journalism, and partly the arguments of professional historians. This phenomenon could become an interesting object of study for memetics - a science that describes in genetic terms the reproduction, distribution, selection, mutation and death of memes - elementary units, quanta of culture. Such information quanta - memes, can also include formulated ideas, literary clichés and phrases used by the authors of printed works. The life of a meme can be imagined by analogy with the trajectory of the spread of a virus, which can only exist in the cell of an infected carrier. The carriers of the meme “history has no subjunctive mood” in our case are the arguments of historians devoted to historical experience, “lessons of history,” the choices made by subjects of historical activity in critical situations, unexpected changes in the course of events under the influence of accidents.

It is characteristic that after or before the statement about the inadmissibility of the subjunctive mood in history, reasoning in the subjunctive mood is very often heard. This, on the one hand, shows the need for this very “subjunctive mood” in the study of the historical past, and on the other hand, indicates the absence, or at least underdevelopment, of methodological reflection on this problem. For a significant part of domestic historians, the entire methodology on this issue most often comes down to another meme, namely: “one should study what could have been in order to understand why everything happened exactly the way it did and not otherwise.” It seems that the problem of alternative historical development, due to its importance and complexity, should not be reduced to the functioning of memes.

Degree of knowledge of the problem

There are still no general historiographic works on the study of the problem of alternativeness in Russian historical science. Some authors provide very brief reviews of several works. Meanwhile, the critical mass of author's publications on the topic of alternativeness has reached such a limit that special research in this area is required.

Domestic historical science has accumulated quite extensive and original experience in studying the problem of alternativeness, which needs generalization, creative comprehension and development. Here, first of all, it is necessary to consider the contribution of methodologists M. Ya. Gefter, A. Ya. Gurevich, I. D. Kovalchenko, M. A. Barga, E. M. Zhukova, B. G. Mogilnitsky, P. V. Volobueva, Yu. M. Lotman. Among the latest works, the studies of S. stand out. A. Ekshtut and L.I. Borodkina. The works of N. Ya. Eidelman, A. D. Sukhov, V. B. Kobrin, E. A. were also considered. Nikiforova, E. G. Plimaka, I. K. Pantina, I. M. Klyamkina, G. G. Vodolazova, Ya. G. Shemyakina, V. V. Ivanova I. V. Bestuzhev-Lada A. S. Akhiezera, A.V. Korotaeva, M. S. Kagana, V. B Lukov and V. M. Sergeev, Yu. P. Bokarev, S. F. Grebenichenko, S. B. Pereslegin and many others.

The works of foreign authors who addressed the problem of alternativeness in history are also involved: M. Blok, D. Milo, R.Koselleck, L. Mises, A. J. Toynbee, R. Vogel, E. Anksel, A. Demanda, K. Maxey, N. Fergusson and others.

Despite the solid history of development, the new direction of scientific analysis has not yet been fully formed, not only in domestic science, but also abroad. There is not only a verified methodology, but even a generally accepted name. The concepts of “alternative development”, “multivariate history”, “alternative studies”, “retro-alternative studies”, “retroprognostics”, “virtual history”, “failed history”, “counterfactual modeling” are used. No coordination is sought between all these directions. Such concepts as “historical possibility”, “historical probability”, “historical accident”, “freedom of choice” are used everywhere, but are not sufficiently conceptualized theoretically and methodically mastered. The dissertation work is an attempt to overcome these shortcomings.

Novelty of the dissertation research

The novelty in the historiographical part of the work, in addition to the first generalized study of the issues, was contained in the application of the method of analysis of discursive practices to the study of the role and place of the ideas of K. Marx and F. Engels in studying the problem of alternative historical development in Soviet historical science. Discourse analysis is also used to characterize the understanding of alternativeness in history by M. Ya. Gefter and to criticize the use of the concepts of synergetics in historical knowledge.

The novelty was also contained in the development of a correct definition of historical contingency, in some new principles for the classification of historical possibilities, in highlighting such an aspect of the problem as the relationship between the choice of a historian and the choice of a subject of historical activity, in posing the problem of the incorrect use of mathematical methods in the study from the point of view of mathematics and system analysis historical alternatives and in criticism carried out from these positions.

When searching for metaphysical philosophical foundations for the theoretical study of alternativeness in history, areas of intersection or complementarity, as well as methods of mutual verification or falsification for antinomianism (Kant), dialectics (Hegel), intuitionism (A. Bergson, N.O. Lossky, S.A.) were established. Levitsky), existentialism (S. Kierkegaard, M. Heidegger, J.-P. Sart), positivism (P.S. Laplace) and neopositivism (L. Wittgenstein, K. Hempel). Such a synthesis in relation to the problem of alternativeness in history also constitutes novelty.

When using probabilistic logic for the theoretical study of the alternative nature of historical development, the complementarity and mutual verifiability of the concepts of probability of Leibniz, A. will be considered. A. Markov, R. Mises, A. N. Kolmogorov, R. Carnap, J. Keynes, G. Reichenbach, L. Zadeh in the study of historical probability. Based on the concepts of probabilistic logic, an attempt will be made to develop a new methodology for empirical analysis of the probabilistic picture of the historical situation.

Relevance of the research topic

The scientific significance of the problem of alternative historical development is closely related to the current problems of modern socio-economic and political practice. Failure to understand the multi-variant nature of historical development in the past leads to a lack of understanding of the multi-variant nature of the future in conditions of constant variability of the current situation, which can lead to irreversible mistakes. Suffice it to recall the declaration that there was no alternative to shock therapy in Russia in the early 90s. Political levers were thrown to silence other opinions. Everyone knows the catastrophic result for Russia. It was the logic of no alternative that gave rise to the theory of Russia’s permanent “lag” and “catching up” with the West, which does not recognize that this is not a lag, but other forms of development.

Of course, non-recognition of alternative development is characteristic not only of the historical consciousness of Russians. For example, guided by the concept of no alternative, advisers to US presidents destroyed the economies of Africa and Latin America for their own good, for the sake of progressive development, but development along one path in which there can be no alternatives.

In search of historical origins and historical lessons for the modern situation, historical consciousness tends to turn to analogies with the past in the subjunctive mood. So in 1990-1991, the image of Stolypin became very popular. The former “reactionary” and “hangman” turned into a hero. Then, in August 1991, the focus shifted to the February Revolution. Then they started talking about the danger of a “new October”.

M. N. Pokrovsky’s thesis that “history is politics thrown back into the past” remains relevant despite all the political and historiographical upheavals. Historical arguments in the subjunctive mood have become another weapon in the “war for the past.” A failed but possible story has become one of the “battlefields” in the information wars of modern propaganda. In this regard, the study of historiographical and methodological aspects of alternativeness in history, in addition to scientific, may also have social and practical significance, namely: to contribute to the accumulation of a theoretical basis for planning and conducting “attacks” and “counterattacks” in information wars, to remain aloof from which the historian is unlikely to succeed fully.

What was glasnost during perestroika, if not a large-scale information war aimed at discrediting the Soviet regime? And the theme of alternative history (for example, “if the communists had not done what they did in the past, we would have lived better now”) was one of the main ones in this war.

In general terms, the processes occurring with humanity at the turn of the 20th-21st centuries are usually called the term “globalization”. Globalization involves many development alternatives and opposing trends. One of the main trends in the modern world is the decentralization of political power, caused by the avalanche-like progress of the scientific and technological revolution, its global nature and universal impact on all aspects of social life, the massive development of means of communication, the transnational nature of economic centers, reducing the need for traditional centers of political power. At the same time, ethnic and nationalist groups are recognized as the most effective and efficient subjects of decentralization of state power at the current, first, stage of globalization. This is due to the fact that established state borders, as a rule, do not correspond to real ethnic, linguistic and territorial unities. An encouraging influence on such groups can, in the near future, lead to the formation of new small state entities and open up the possibility of their participation in various economic unions.

With regard to the topic of alternativeness, such trends were reflected primarily in PR campaigns aimed at supporting centrifugal and separatist movements in the territory of the former USSR. In state and ethnic entities that have ever had independence or belonged to another state, it is very common to argue that life in these regions would have been better if they had not once been annexed to the USSR or Russia. Or that life in countries that were not part of the USSR would be worse if they joined the USSR (for example, Finland, which claims to return Karelia). Such reasoning is especially typical for the Baltic states, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Tatarstan, etc. To verify this without raising the entire press, it is enough to make an appropriate request on the Internet, for example this: subjunctive&&history&&name of the country.

For Russia, three development options can be seen regarding the processes of globalization. The first is a refusal to participate in globalization, that is, a kind of autarky, which means the destruction of Russia as a power. This option has little chance, and if implemented, it will be reversible. The second option is self-elimination from the main roles in globalization and becoming its passive object. That is, Russia becomes a raw materials appendage, “the tenth contractor of third corporations.” This option is very beneficial for many small officials and market operators in Russia, and, naturally, for the international economic elite. And the third, the only worthy option is active globalization, the creation of some kind of Russian strategy.

Looking at these prospects from the point of view of using the problem of the alternativeness of the historical past in political propaganda, we can assume that the forces seeking to implement the second option will try to belittle the historical role of Russia, disavow its potential for mobilization in critical historical situations and overestimate this potential for the West , to create disbelief among Russians in revival. When choosing the third option, it becomes necessary to respond to such attacks, and there are already examples of such confrontation. Thus, in the article “The Caribbean Crisis: Counterfactual Modeling of a Possible Outcome,” I. A. Kopylov, head of the group of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and S. A. Modestov, adviser to the Personnel Directorate of the President of the Russian Federation, Doctor of Political Sciences, criticize the reasoning of American historians that the behavior of the administration Khrushchev in the early 60s, from the point of view of military-strategic potential, was a bluff and an unjustified adventure, and the United States could have defeated the USSR in the event of a more stringent response. The authors of the article note that “the intensified interest in unrealized historical opportunities is associated by American colleagues with the missed opportunities of the strong, who overestimated the potential of the weak. All the counterfactual versions of the past they consider have in mind the same distressing circumstance: the issue could have been resolved with the enemy earlier, easier and cheaper.”

The main thing that a historian who finds himself in a situation of information war should not forget is that the imposition of political interests on historical science is fraught with distortion of the past and undermining trust in historians as servants of scientific truth. This should be taken into account in modern conditions of another alternative situation of social development.

Chronological framework of the study

The chronological framework of the study can be determined on two grounds: historiographical and specific historical.

The first chapter is devoted to domestic historiography since the mid-1960s. until 2001. The second chapter discusses the work, starting from the end XIX century..

The specific historical framework is determined by the themes and plots that were touched upon by domestic and foreign authors in connection with the theme of alternative history. These frameworks cover fragments of human history from primitiveness to modern times. For the same reasons, the territorial-spatial historical framework is not limited, although the greatest attention is paid to Russian and European history.

Dissertation structure

The structure of the dissertation is subordinated to the goals and objectives of the research. The work consists of an introduction, 2 chapters, a conclusion, a list of sources and references. The first chapter is historiographical with methodological comments. It consists of 8 sections, the information in which is systematized according to chronology and authorship of works. The second chapter is methodological with historiographical comments. It consists of main 5 sections. The information in the second chapter is systematized according to the problem principle.

The sources of historiographic research are the works of domestic authors who studied the theoretical or specific historical aspects of the problem of alternative historical development, including materials from round tables devoted to this topic. When analyzing the methodological aspects of the problem of alternativeness, the works of foreign historians on this topic were used, as well as the philosophical works of representatives of German classical philosophy, positivism, Marxism, existentialism, intuitionism, neopositivism, and postmodernism. The works of domestic and foreign mathematicians were used as auxiliary material when applying the concepts and methods of higher mathematics.